3.4 Million Covid-19 cases under reported in India?

The first confirmed case of COVID-19  was reported in India on 30 January, 2020 in the state of Kerala. It was observed that the affected had a travel history from Wuhan, China. 

According to a survey conducted by the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) "India had far more COVID-19 Cases than official count" 

So, does that mean the death rate in India is much lower than what is being reported? 

 Or 

Do we assume that there is a mass coverup of deaths? 

Not surprising at all in fact. Let us refer to the time before the festive season when COVID - 19 cases all over the world were at peak and at the same time, cases in India were decreasing. 

The question is not why is the govt trying to fudge the cases but the question is how many COVID 19 deaths went underreported or incorrectly reported. 

It is likely that the count must have been a lot more than the official count. 

It goes without saying that the official numbers are only a tip of the iceberg.  

However, reduced testing could be one possibility of underreported cases. 

Generally, there are two ways to fudge the actual number.  

1. By reducing the number of tests being conducted  as suggested by Donald Trump. 

2.  By increasing the number of Antigen tests and reducing the number of PCR tests.  

From 100% PCR tests when the Pandemic started to less than 60% PCR tests. India has came really down in the case of tests.  

Furthermore, Bihar, Telangana, Gujarat, Delhi and Uttar Pradesh (UP) are the  India's five worst states with less than 50% PCR tests. 

Tamil Nadu and Rajasthan have achieved a great excellence with 100% PCR tests. 

Source (ICMR). 

It is a very well known fact that PCR tests are more accurate than Antigen tests because Antigen tests are said to have had a high rate of false negatives. 

Consequently, it has come to light that the Antigen Testing if done at a higher level, chances are that it may miss a large number of positive cases. 

During the Bihar election, Bihar became  the worst state underreporting COVID-19 Cases. 

"The actual number of cases in Bihar was 132% of officially counted cases" 

Source : (ICMR)  

So do we assume that India has not reported 3.4 Million COVID -19 cases?  

Yes, we could say that.  

This might be because of the increase in the use of unreliable Antigen tests. 

Delhi and Maharashtra  have the highest actual numbers of missing COVID - 19 cases. 

Punjab, Rajasthan along with Tamil Nadu  have accurately reported the number of cases in their states.  

Source : (ICMR) 

One way to find out a state's accurate ranking in how well it is testing its poulation is the number of PCR tests conducted. 

In accordance with the ranking given to states by testing levels, Tamil Nadu tops with over 100 PCR tests conducted. 

Karnataka is the second best state to have 1, 310 tests conducted per ten thousand citizens.

Source : (ICMR)

Bihar, Gujarat and Telangana stands at the lowest in terms of PCR testing per head of their population. 

In whole, it is quite evident that India is not using PCR tests enough. 

The figures of the positive cases is much more higher than the official count. The official data regarding the positivity of tests is clearly misleading. The PCR tests have come in front revealing the truth. 

To what extent can the states go on hiding their true positivity rates? 

The  actual positivity rate of the country is somewhere nearer to 140%  of the officially declared positivity rate. 

Bihar, Telangana, Gujarat, Delhi, UP still tops the list with the worst states hiding the true positivity rates as well. 

For the reasons known only to them, the government is keen on hiding the accurate cases and showing less numbers.